Today's stories that matter
October 3, 2025
Markets digest a Fed caution call, cheaper dollar hedges, shutdown costs, sticky housing, and global equities optimism. Volatility risk rises as data flow dims.
Fixed Income
High Impact
🏦 Fed’s Logan: “Be very cautious” on more rate cuts
#1
Dallas Fed’s Logan urged caution on more easing, warning inflation remains sticky and shutdown delays data.
Why it matters:
Slower cuts mean higher borrowing costs for longer, weighing on bonds, mortgages, and rate-sensitive sectors.
Currencies
Medium Impact
💵 Fed easing makes dollar hedges cheaper for foreign investors
#2
Fed cuts lower USD hedge costs, boosting demand from European pensions and sovereigns; dollar is down ~10% this year.
Why it matters:
Cheaper hedging keeps foreign money in US assets,good for Treasuries and large-caps, but negative for unhedged USD exposure.
Equities
Medium Impact
🌍 Global stocks push higher as rate-cut hopes outweigh shutdown noise
#3
MSCI World nears records as equities rally despite US shutdown; bond moves mixed.
Why it matters:
Policy hopes outweigh missing data for now, but fewer gauges raise the risk of sharp swings if Fed tone shifts.
Real Estate
🏠 Mortgage rates tick up again to 6.34%
#4
The 30-year mortgage rate rose for the second week, tracking Treasuries, keeping affordability tight despite Fed cuts.
Why it matters:
Housing is the Fed’s transmission channel; sticky mortgage costs delay refis, limit supply, and weigh on homebuilders/REITs.
Equities
High Impact
🏛 Shutdown watch: mounting economic costs, data delays
#5
The US shutdown could cost billions per week and disrupt key data like payrolls, complicating Fed policy and pricing.
Why it matters:
Markets run on data; fewer gauges raise volatility and mispricing risk,forcing investors to navigate blind spots.